With the 2024 Presidential election nearing, you might be wondering what impact it could have on the housing market. Let’s take a closer look.
Election Years Typically Cause a Temporary Slowdown
Every fall, home sales tend to dip slightly due to seasonal trends. However, during election years, data from BTIG shows a slightly bigger drop in home sales in the month leading up to Election Day:
The reason? Uncertainty. Many people put off making major decisions, like buying or selling a home, while waiting to see the election outcome. This pattern has been observed consistently, particularly in the housing market.
This year follows that trend. A recent Redfin survey found that 23% of potential first-time homebuyers are holding off until after the election, likely due to the same uncertainty.
Home Sales Rebound After the Election
The good news is that these delayed sales are not lost—they’re simply postponed. Historically, home sales tend to bounce back after elections. In fact, sales have increased 82% of the time in the year following an election:
Once the election is over and the future feels more certain, buyers and sellers generally regain confidence, leading to an uptick in home sales.
What To Expect in 2025
If past trends hold, we can expect more homes to sell next year. Based on the latest projections, the housing market is on track to sell 4.6 million homes in 2024, with forecasts showing 5.2 million sales in 2025:
This aligns with the typical pattern of post-election rebounds, as both buyers and sellers feel more secure moving forward.
Bottom Line
While election years often bring a short-term slowdown in the housing market, this dip is typically temporary. Those postponed sales usually materialize after the election, and forecasts suggest that 2025 will follow the same trend. If you’re waiting for more clarity before making a move, remember that the market is expected to gain momentum in the months ahead.
Source: Keeping Current Matters